...even though I live in Virginia and he was pretty much a lock at the time. He was refusing to PROMISE he would only run for one term. And I knew without that promise, we'd find ourselves right here. It was always hugely unlikely he'd be fit to run for two terms. That's not an easy thing to say and it's not an easy thing to face, but it's just the reality of the situation. The Presidency ages people enormously - Obama looked 12 years older by the time his first term was up. Biden could not afford that. But I also know that power can be intoxicating and extremely difficult to give up when you have it. I see Biden right now being driven almost entirely by ego and insult.
And honestly, I feared the election was lost even before it became increasingly obvious he was not physically/mentally capable of another full term, with his disastrous response to Gaza. I think a lot of older millennial/Gen X/boomer Dems, or more moderate Dems, are maybe not grasping the extent of the fury at Biden from younger and leftist Dems, as well as Muslim voters. They HATE him. I mean, they absolutely despise him. They call him Genocide Joe. They hold him responsible for how many civilians in Gaza have died and how many are almost doomed to certainly die at this point due to the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. They probably hate him more than they hate Trump. "Trump would make things worse in Gaza" is both probably true and a terrible, meaningless argument to make to the people who are this angry at Biden. And that's an anger I have not seen him grasp or address on any meaningful level. No one who hates him gives a **** about what he claims he's doing behind the scenes or whatever. No one believes him. And as I keep saying, two things are equally true - younger voters don't vote at the rate that they should, AND, Biden would not have won 2020 without them and he cannot win 2024 without them. And I do not believe enough of them will "come home" for him to win in November. Many of them won't vote for Trump. They just won't vote. And we can't overcome that.
So all of that was before the debate made it vividly clear he's having obvious cognitive issues. You put the two things together and we're headed for disaster. And it's in no small part because Biden is on a massive ego trip.
