A senator who has that seat locked until 2028 and then mostly like locked again if he should decide to run.
Our Democratic governor would replace him with a Democrat. Name recognition often works for the incumbent. Whoever takes the seat will have two years in office before they run again. That person will have name recognition.
Any replacement would serve until 2026 and then have to run in a special election and then have to run again in 2028. That makes 3 straight elections (7 if you count 2016 (McCain), 2018 (Sinema), 2020 (Kelly special election), 2022 (Kelly regular election)). Arizona is too iffy and too expensive to continue to fund Senate elections every two years.
I don't see us as iffy. Senator Sinema got elected by running as an
extreme progressive. Not how she voted, so she knew she couldn't win if she ran again as a Democrat. When Senator McCain passed away, we had a Republican governor who replaced him with the Republican nominee who lost to Senator Sinema, Senator McSally. She, an Air Force pilot, lost to Senator Kelly, an Air Force pilot. As far as the cost, if people would stop dying (Senator McCain) or stepping up to higher offices (Hopefully Senator Kelly), we wouldn't have that "problem," would we?
Beyond that one of the hallmarks of Biden-Harris has been their rock solid support for labor. Senator Kelly voted against the PRO act (something even Manchin voted for) and because of that it died in the Senate. In the last couple of days he has since signaled his support for labor but unions are rightfully leery.
He just voted for the PRO Act. That means to me that he's seriously trying for the slot.
