One thing I think we can say for sure is the next D nominee will be much more conservative on immigration. As I am starting to process all of this, I think Ds are going to look at the next election like they looked at the 1992 election - it is time to move more towards the center on both policy and candidates.
On candidates that means that a woman will not be the nominee. Nor will a governor or Senator who is coastal and/or comes off as from the "elitist" class. Right away that knocks Newsom, Whitmer, and most likely Shapiro (because he does come off as east coast elitist) out of the running. IMO the next D candidate will be the 2028 version of Bill Clinton, circa 1992.
Logically that means Beshear is a front runner but he does not have the charisma Clinton did. Looking at this very early on I could see Pritzker having a shot. He is very rich but he also is very charismatic and he comes off as very down to earth. This is awful but if we see Pritzker start to lose some weight, I am going to assume he is making a 2028 run.
As far as policy, we are moving to the right on immigration. I also think any D running in 2028 will come out against trans women playing in women's sports. Those ads worked or they wouldn't have kept running them. For that matter, while this may be unpopular with many here, that is one issue I struggle with. I actually don't think trans women should compete with women.
I also don't think it is that much of an issue as it effects so few people. Still Rs were able to exploit it as one.
